before July 2026: Before July 2026 · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
before July 2026: Before July 2026 is priced at 3¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 5 inside Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
Price history
3¢ current
+1¢Contract brief
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
before July 2026: Before July 2026
Rank
#5 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 33¢
Range
2¢-33¢
Family volume
$204K
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-JUL26
May 27, 2026, 3:41 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$17K
Family rank
#5 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$204K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-JUL26
Event family
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$204K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 33¢
Current share
9%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-29
Before 2028
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXALIENS-27
Before September 2026
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-26SEP
before July 2026: Before July 2026
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-JUL26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 3% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.