What is the current probability for "Best AI in Dec 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 18¢ (18% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Best AI in Dec 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 702.2% and 29.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Best AI in Dec 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Best AI in Dec 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Best AI in Dec 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This Baidu AI market has experienced sharp downward pressure, dropping 33% over seven days to 16¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment about Baidu's competitive positioning by year-end despite 259 days remaining.

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18¢

Bid/Ask 17/18¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $4,668.98·OI $381,957.5·Closes Dec 31, 2026·254d remaining

KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOG

7-day price140 snapshots · 85 regime

29¢16¢ current

Apr 816¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This Baidu AI market has experienced sharp downward pressure, dropping 33% over seven days to 16¢, suggesting deteriorating sentiment about Baidu's competitive positioning by year-end despite 259 days remaining. The extreme 689% implied yield on Yes contracts combined with modest $5.5K daily volume and $362K open interest indicates thin liquidity and potentially outsized risk-reward dynamics, though the zero spread suggests some market maker presence. The elevated realized volatility (426%) and high cliff risk index (5) warrant caution—this appears to be a speculative position rather than a liquid consensus market.

Resolution rules

If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 702.2%

IY (No) 29.5%

Adj IY 661%

CRI 5

RV 328%

VR 1.21

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	702.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	29.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	661%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	328%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.21	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.06	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:45:35 PM

Observability mediumEvent type scientific

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLLM1-26DEC31-GOOG yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →