Before November · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Before November is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
Price history
4¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before November
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 23¢
Range
1¢-23¢
Family volume
$31K
Identifier
KXALIENS-26NOV
Aug 22, 2026, 9:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$8K
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$31K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXALIENS-26NOV
Event family
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$31K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 23¢
Current share
26%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-29
Before 2028
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXALIENS-27
Before December
kalshi · KXALIENS-26DEC
Before November
kalshi · KXALIENS-26NOV
Before September
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-26SEP
Before October
kalshi · KXALIENS-26OCT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.