Before 2028 · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Before 2028 is priced at 18¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 16¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 8 inside Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
Price history
18¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2028
Rank
#2 of 8
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 24¢
Range
2¢-24¢
Family volume
$98K
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-28
Jul 13, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
16¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$4K
Family rank
#2 of 8
8 outcomes · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$98K
Orderbook snapshot
16 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-28
Event family
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$98K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 24¢
Current share
4%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-29
Before 2028
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXALIENS-27
Before December
kalshi · KXALIENS-26DEC
Before November
kalshi · KXALIENS-26NOV
Before August
kalshi · KXALIENS-26AUG
Before September
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-26SEP
Before October
kalshi · KXALIENS-26OCT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.