Before 2028 · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Before 2028 is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
Price history
24¢ current
+22¢Contract brief
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before 2028
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 33¢
Range
2¢-33¢
Family volume
$204K
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-28
May 27, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Family volume
$204K
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2028
Identifier
KXALIENS-27-28
Event family
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$204K
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 33¢
Current share
1%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-29
Before 2028
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXALIENS-27
Before September 2026
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-26SEP
before July 2026: Before July 2026
kalshi · KXALIENS-27-JUL26
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 24% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.