Winner-take-all answer·4 source contracts·Kalshi 4·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 20, 2029 · 970d

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before July 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 35% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

35%

Before Jan 20, 2029

0¢runner-up 28¢leader 35¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

28¢

Before 2028

Spread

7pp

contested

24h volume

$119K

liquid

Closes

Jan 20, 2029

970 days

Venue

Kalshi

4 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?: Before Jan 20, 202935¢$3K Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?: Before 202828¢$2K Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 202719¢$110K Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026?: Before September 20267¢$4K

30-day trend

Before Jan 20, 202933¢Before 202826¢Before 202718¢

Top 3 candidates by current price · 27d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist

4 contracts$119K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?: Before 2027

KXALIENS-27

19¢±0$110KK→

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2026?: Before September 2026

KXALIENS-27-26SEP

7¢−1pp$4KK→

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029

KXALIENS-27-29

35¢+1pp$3KK→

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2028?: Before 2028

KXALIENS-27-28

28¢±0$2KK→

What moved the line

May 20Before Jan 20, 2029↑7pp33→40¢ · Kalshi
May 21Before Jan 20, 2029↓3pp40→37¢ · Kalshi
May 19Before 2028↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
May 24Before 2028↓3pp29→26¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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