U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 56¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 50¢ bid, 55¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 3 inside Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan.
Price history
56¢ current
+33¢Contract brief
If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 3
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 50¢
Range
15¢-50¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXUSOPENAIANTH-29JAN29-29JAN20
Jul 28, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 1m ago
Implied probability
Bid
50¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$3
Family rank
#1 of 3
3 outcomes · Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
50 / 55¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the U.S. federal government has taken a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXUSOPENAIANTH-29JAN29-29JAN20
Event family
Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 50¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.