Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 48% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 20, 2029
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Before Jan 1, 2028
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
898 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan
Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXUSOPENAIANTH-29JAN29-27JAN01
Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029
KXUSOPENAIANTH-29JAN29-29JAN20
Will the U.S. federal government take a stake of at least 1% in each of OpenAI and Anthropic (including any successor or parent substantially owning its AI business) before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028
KXUSOPENAIANTH-29JAN29-28JAN01
Analysis
This market is asking whether the U.S. federal government will acquire at least a 1% ownership stake in both OpenAI and Anthropic by January 20, 2029. The current 49% probability reflects uncertainty about whether policymakers will pursue direct equity investment in major AI companies as part of national strategy. The probability declines sharply for earlier deadlines (20% by Jan 2027, 38% by Jan 2028), suggesting traders believe such acquisitions are more likely but still far from certain. Key drivers include ongoing debates over AI regulation and national security competitiveness, alongside questions about whether government equity stakes align with current regulatory philosophy. No single scheduled event immediately resolves this; resolution depends on legislative action, executive decision-making, and potential national security reviews over the next 2.5 years.
- ›No announced government equity acquisition program for OpenAI or Anthropic exists as of mid-2026
- ›Recent U.S. AI policy has emphasized oversight and standards-setting rather than direct government ownership stakes
- ›National security concerns around AI development could accelerate or prompt government investment in strategic companies
- ›Both companies' private funding and valuations may reduce perceived necessity for government capital investment
- ›Legislative and executive leadership turnover through 2029 introduces uncertainty about political will for novel ownership structures
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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