Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?
Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the US start the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before 2030?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. The market is pricing a 58% probability of nuclear-powered data center construction beginning on a U.S.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 58% probability of nuclear-powered data center construction beginning on a U.S. military base within the next 3.7 years, with a tight 1¢ spread suggesting reasonable liquidity despite modest $852 daily volume. The 22.9% implied yield on Yes positions reflects meaningful uncertainty, though the No side's 31.6% yield indicates some skepticism about execution timelines, and the relatively flat 7-day price movement (53¢ to 54¢) suggests the market hasn't yet reacted to potential policy announcements or defense procurement developments. With 1,355 days to resolution and low cliff risk, this appears fairly valued for a binary outcome dependent on both political will and technical feasibility decisions.
Resolution rules
If US starts the process of building a nuclear-powered data center on a military base before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDATACENTER-30 yes 100