Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035 is priced at 26¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 26¢ bid, 39¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
26¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$20K
Identifier
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35
Jun 25, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
26¢
Ask
39¢
Spread
13¢
Reported volume
$20K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
Family volume
$20K
Orderbook snapshot
26 / 39¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2035
Identifier
KXEARTHQUAKECALIFORNIA-35
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$20K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035 26¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.