At least 2 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026
At least 2 is priced at 50¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 46¢ bid, 52¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 4 inside Will there be at least.
Price history
50¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump has sent at least 2 nominations to the U.S. Senate from Aug 2, 2026 through Aug 8, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 9, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 2
Rank
#1 of 4
Leader
At least 2 46¢
Range
9¢-46¢
Family volume
$303
Identifier
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T2
Aug 6, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
46¢
Ask
52¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$303
Family rank
#1 of 4
4 outcomes · Will there be at least
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Family volume
$303
Orderbook snapshot
46 / 52¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump has sent at least 2 nominations to the U.S. Senate from Aug 2, 2026 through Aug 8, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 9, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T2
Event family
Will there be at least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$303
Outcomes
4
Highest price
At least 2 46¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.