Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026
Leader sits at 58% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 41%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 2
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
41¢
At least 3
Spread
17pp
contested
24h volume
$103
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
6 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be at least
Will there be at least 2 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 2
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T2
Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 3
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T3
Will there be at least 10 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 10
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T10
Will there be at least 5 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 5
KXTRUMPNOMNUM-26AUG02-T5
Analysis
This contract estimates a 15% probability that the White House will submit at least three presidential nominations to the Senate during the week of July 19, 2026. Presidential nomination activity typically correlates with legislative priorities, cabinet vacancies, or policy shifts. The current low probability suggests markets expect lighter nomination volume during this particular week, which may reflect typical summer legislative rhythms or the absence of announced vacancies requiring immediate replacement. Nomination submission decisions depend on White House scheduling, Senate availability, and the urgency of staffing needs. The outcome will be definitively resolved by counting official nominations received by the Senate during the specified week, making this a verifiable metric.
- ›Historical nomination submission patterns for mid-July weeks versus other periods in the calendar year
- ›Whether any cabinet-level or senior positions are vacant or anticipated to become vacant before or during that week
- ›Senate legislative schedule and recess dates that affect nomination processing capacity during July 19-25, 2026
- ›White House personnel changes, resignations, or planned departures announced before the resolution week
- ›Current backlog of pending nominations awaiting Senate confirmation that might prompt accelerated submissions
What moved the line
- Aug 2At least 5↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2At least 2↓3pp63→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2At least 10↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2At least 3↓3pp47→44¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-1last 49% · 1d
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026last 89% · 1d
- Will Conservative win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 97% · 1d
- Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 4% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Labour in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election be above 20%last 97% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Election 2026: House control odds shift as Dem momentum continues
After a string of special election wins and favorable polling, Democrats’ probability of winning the House in 2026 jumped 3¢ to 83¢. The Senate remains a knife‑edge, with Republicans at 53¢. The Michigan Democratic Senate primary sees Abdul El‑Sayed as a near‑certainty (97¢) on massive volume.
2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored to Keep House; Senate Battlegrounds Tight
The market gives Democrats an 83% chance of retaining the House, while Senate control is a toss‑up (45% Democrat, 55% Republican). Mega‑volume markets like the Michigan Senate primary (410k volume) and the Florida gubernatorial primary (166k volume) highlight intense intraparty competition.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.