More than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026
Above 70 is priced at 7¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 7¢ bid, 9¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 14 inside Will there be more than.
Price history
7¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 70 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 70
Rank
#11 of 14
Leader
Above 15 94¢
Range
3¢-94¢
Family volume
$17K
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T70
Aug 7, 2026, 6:09 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$513
Family rank
#11 of 14
14 outcomes · Will there be more than
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Family volume
$17K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 9¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 70 from Aug 3, 2026 to Aug 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 11, 2026
Identifier
KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T70
Event family
Will there be more than.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17K
Outcomes
14
Highest price
Above 15 94¢
Current share
3%
Above 15
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T15
Above 20
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T20
Above 25
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T25
Above 30
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T30
Above 35
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T35
Above 40
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T40
Above 45
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T45
Above 50
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T50
Above 55
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T55
Above 60
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T60
Above 65
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T65
Above 70
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T70
Above 75
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T75
Above 80
kalshi · KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26AUG09-T80
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.525
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.