Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term?
Prediction markets currently give a 81% probability that Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term?. This contract trades at 81¢ on Kalshi, closing January 22, 2029. The market prices an 81% probability of no U.S.
Analysis
The market prices an 81% probability of no U.S. acquisition of Greenland by January 2029, but the extreme 144% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—the $157k open interest on a binary with a tight 1¢ spread suggests the "Yes" side (acquisition occurs) is dramatically underpriced relative to tail risk. With 71% realized volatility, a 2.36 vol ratio, and only $1,662 in 24-hour volume across a 1,011-day window, this market lacks sufficient depth to trust the 81¢ price as a reliable probability estimate, and the modest 7-day decline from 81¢ to 80¢ indicates minimal recent conviction despite Trump's public interest in the acquisition.
Resolution rules
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXGREENLANDPRICE-29JAN21-NOACQ yes 100