Tom Emmer · KXMNPRIMARY-06R26
Tom Emmer is priced at 95¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 97¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXMNPRIMARY-06R26.
Price history
95¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If Tom Emmer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MN-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Tom Emmer
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Tom Emmer 97¢
Range
1¢-97¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXMNPRIMARY-06R26-TEMM
Aug 7, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 29m ago
Implied probability
Bid
97¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$9K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXMNPRIMARY-06R26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
97 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Tom Emmer wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 MN-06 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXMNPRIMARY-06R26-TEMM
Event family
KXMNPRIMARY-06R26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Tom Emmer 97¢
Current share
—
Tom Emmer
kalshi · KXMNPRIMARY-06R26-TEMM
Mike Foley
kalshi · KXMNPRIMARY-06R26-MFOL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
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Event Probability API
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.