Will Jared Adams be the Democratic nominee for MN-07
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 68% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
68%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
11 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
456 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic nominee for MN-05
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic nominee for MN-05?: Ilhan Omar
KXMNPRIMARY-05D26-IOMA
Cluster 2
Will John Nagel be the Republican nominee for MN-05
Will John Nagel be the Republican nominee for MN-05?: John Nagel
KXMNPRIMARY-05R26-JNAG
Cluster 3
Will Tom Emmer be the Republican nominee for MN-06
Will Tom Emmer be the Republican nominee for MN-06?: Tom Emmer
KXMNPRIMARY-06R26-TEMM
Cluster 4
Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the Republican nominee for MN-05
Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the Republican nominee for MN-05?: Dalia Al-Aqidi
KXMNPRIMARY-05R26-DALQ
Cluster 5
Will Quentin Wittrock be the Republican nominee for MN-03
Will Quentin Wittrock be the Republican nominee for MN-03?: Quentin Wittrock
KXMNPRIMARY-03R26-QWIT
Cluster 6
Will Paul Wikstrom be the Republican nominee for MN-04
Will Paul Wikstrom be the Republican nominee for MN-04?: Paul Wikstrom
KXMNPRIMARY-04R26-PWIK
Cluster 7
Will Tyler Bass be the Republican nominee for MN-03
Will Tyler Bass be the Republican nominee for MN-03?: Tyler Bass
KXMNPRIMARY-03R26-TBAS
Cluster 8
Will Betty McCollum be the Democratic nominee for MN-04
Will Betty McCollum be the Democratic nominee for MN-04?: Betty McCollum
KXMNPRIMARY-04D26-BMCC
Cluster 9
Will Paul Xiong be the Republican nominee for MN-04
Will Paul Xiong be the Republican nominee for MN-04?: Paul Xiong
KXMNPRIMARY-04R26-PXIO
Cluster 10
Will Doug Chapin be the Democratic nominee for MN-06
Will Doug Chapin be the Democratic nominee for MN-06?: Doug Chapin
KXMNPRIMARY-06D26-DCHA
Cluster 11
Will Erik Osberg be the Democratic nominee for MN-07
Will Erik Osberg be the Democratic nominee for MN-07?: Erik Osberg
KXMNPRIMARY-07D26-EOSB
Analysis
This probability indicates there is approximately a 44% chance that Jared Adams will win the Democratic primary election for Minnesota's 7th congressional district. Primary outcomes depend heavily on factors like candidate name recognition, endorsement patterns from party leadership, and voter turnout across the district. The nomination will be determined by the Minnesota Democratic primary election, which typically occurs in early summer. Performance in earlier candidate forums, fundraising totals, and field organization strength relative to other candidates in the race would likely be the key metrics that shift this probability up or down as the primary approaches.
- ›Jared Adams's fundraising totals compared to other Democratic candidates running in MN-07
- ›Endorsements from Minnesota state Democratic Party officials and federal legislators representing the state
- ›Vote share in any early primary elections, straw polls, or candidate preference surveys among registered Democrats
- ›Voter turnout levels in the MN-07 district relative to historical Democratic primary participation rates
- ›Name recognition and polling differentials between Adams and his primary opponents in the district
What moved the line
- Jul 31Dalia Al-Aqidi↑15pp45→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1John Nagel↓14pp42→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 28Dalia Al-Aqidi↑13pp32→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2John Nagel↓4pp28→24¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2Dalia Al-Aqidi↑4pp63→67¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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- Will Conservative Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 4% · 2d
- Will Conservative win the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral electionlast 97% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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