Canadian aircraft · Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically
Canadian aircraft is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically.
Price history
14¢ current
Contract brief
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Canadian aircraft
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Critical minerals 39¢
Range
5¢-39¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN
Jun 25, 2026, 11:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
18¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 18¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-CAN
Event family
Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Critical minerals 39¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.