Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive acti.... This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has declined sharply from 48¢ to 37¢ over seven days, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will explicitly target critical minerals in executive action language rather than burying such measures in tariff schedules.
Analysis
The market has declined sharply from 48¢ to 37¢ over seven days, suggesting reduced conviction that Trump will explicitly target critical minerals in executive action language rather than burying such measures in tariff schedules. The extremely high implied yield on the Yes side (239.8%) combined with minimal 24-hour volume ($23) and low open interest ($768.56) indicates thin liquidity and potential overpricing of tail risk, making this contract vulnerable to sharp repricing on any news regarding mineral trade policy. With 259 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in skepticism about whether Trump would formally highlight critical minerals in executive action documentation rather than using more opaque policy mechanisms.
Resolution rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTARIFFSECTOR-27JAN01-MINE yes 100