Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before
Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 4 inside Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before.
Price history
15¢ current
−4¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump publicly criticizes Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Nov 1, 2026
Rank
#3 of 4
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2027 42¢
Range
3¢-42¢
Family volume
$9K
Identifier
KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01
Sep 21, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$717
Family rank
#3 of 4
4 outcomes · Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Family volume
$9K
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump publicly criticizes Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 1, 2026
Identifier
KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01
Event family
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$9K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2027 42¢
Current share
17%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.