Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026
Leader sits at 46% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
Before Dec 1, 2026
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$43K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
104 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027
KXDJTATTACKWARSH-27-JAN
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026
KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26DEC01
Will Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXDJTATTACKWARSH-26SEP-26NOV01
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that Donald Trump will make a public criticism of Kevin Warsh before December 1, 2026. The 34% price suggests traders view it as unlikely but meaningful. The current assessment likely reflects Trump's public communication patterns, his relationship with Warsh, and Warsh's current role or visibility. Key drivers include Trump's propensity for public criticism of administration members and policy figures, and whether Warsh takes policy positions that conflict with Trump's stated priorities. The market assigns lower probability to criticism occurring before October 1 (9%) versus November 1 (21%), suggesting traders expect any criticism would occur later in the fall if it happens at all. Resolution will depend on Trump's actual public statements—speeches, social media posts, or media appearances—over the next 2.5 months.
- ›Trump's historical frequency of public criticism toward administration officials, advisors, and policy figures outside his immediate circle
- ›Warsh's current or anticipated policy positions and whether they diverge from Trump's publicly stated positions on inflation, interest rates, or fiscal policy
- ›Warsh's public visibility and proximity to Trump during the September-December 2026 period
- ›The definition of 'public criticism' and whether it requires direct name-calling or includes any negative comments about decisions or positions associated with Warsh
- ›Market pricing differences across timeframes (9% before Oct 1 vs. 21% before Nov 1 vs. 34% before Dec 1) indicating expectations about timing concentration
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Jan 1, 2027↑9pp38→47¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2027↓4pp47→43¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Before Jan 1, 2027↑3pp35→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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