ChatGPT / OpenAI · Will Trump say "
ChatGPT / OpenAI is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #14 of 16 inside Will Trump say ".
Price history
38¢ current
−10¢Contract brief
If ChatGPT / OpenAI, or a plural or possessive form of ChatGPT / OpenAI, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
ChatGPT / OpenAI
Rank
#14 of 16
Leader
Dell 99¢
Range
27¢-99¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-CHAT
Aug 8, 2026, 4:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
37¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$140
Family rank
#14 of 16
16 outcomes · Will Trump say "
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
37 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If ChatGPT / OpenAI, or a plural or possessive form of ChatGPT / OpenAI, is stated by Donald Trump before Sep 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-CHAT
Event family
Will Trump say ".
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Dell 99¢
Current share
2%
Dell
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-DELL
Toyota
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-TOYO
Micron / MU
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-MU
Apple / AAPL
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-AAPL
Boeing
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-BOEI
Intel / INTC
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-INTC
New York Times / NYT
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-NEW
Nvidia / NVDA
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-NVDA
Amazon / AMZN
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-AMAZ
TikTok
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-TIKT
Meta
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-META
Microsoft / MSFT
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-MICR
SpaceX / SPCX
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-SPCX
ChatGPT / OpenAI
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-CHAT
Pfizer / PFE
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-PFE
Tesla / TSLA
kalshi · KXTRUMPSAYCOMPANY-26SEP01-TSLA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress
A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 38% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.