Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Kalshi, closing November 7, 2028. The 35¢ price reflects modest conviction in a Vance nomination, with the asymmetric implied yields (72.4% Yes vs.
Analysis
The 35¢ price reflects modest conviction in a Vance nomination, with the asymmetric implied yields (72.4% Yes vs. 21.0% No) suggesting Yes-side traders are pricing in meaningful tail risk despite the relatively low base probability. Volume of $10.3K against $1.15M open interest indicates moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, though the 936-day timeframe to the 2028 election leaves substantial uncertainty for political developments to shift positioning. The slight 1¢ decline over seven days and neutral regime score suggest the market is currently stable without strong directional momentum.
Resolution rules
If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV yes 100