J.D. Vance · KXPRESNOMR-28
J.D. Vance is priced at 39¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 39¢ bid, 40¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KXPRESNOMR-28.
Price history
39¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
J.D. Vance
Rank
#1 of 16
Leader
J.D. Vance 39¢
Range
1¢-39¢
Family volume
$147K
Identifier
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Jul 23, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
39¢
Ask
40¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#1 of 16
16 outcomes · KXPRESNOMR-28
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Family volume
$147K
Orderbook snapshot
39 / 40¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 7, 2028
Identifier
KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Event family
KXPRESNOMR-28.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$147K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
J.D. Vance 39¢
Current share
2%
J.D. Vance
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV
Marco Rubio
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-MR
Ron DeSantis
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS
Donald J. Trump Jr.
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Donald J. Trump
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT
Tucker Carlson
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR
Ivanka Trump
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU
Marjorie Taylor Greene
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-MTG
Thomas Massie
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-TMAS
Brian Kemp
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-BK
Tulsi Gabbard
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-TG
Glenn Youngkin
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-GY
Candace Owens
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-COWE
Jeff Bezos
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-JBZ
Josh Hawley
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-JH
Lara Trump
kalshi · KXPRESNOMR-28-LTRU
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.