Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 96¢ ask, 94¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
14¢ current
−12¢Contract brief
If União Progressista wins the most governorships following the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$1K
Identifier
KXBRGOVMOSTSEATS-26OCT04-UPRO
Sep 25, 2026, 8:48 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
96¢
Spread
94¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Family volume
$1K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 96¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If União Progressista wins the most governorships following the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
Identifier
KXBRGOVMOSTSEATS-26OCT04-UPRO
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections 14¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.