Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
388 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 2
Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 3
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This contract asks whether the PSD party will win at least one gubernatorial seat in each of Brazil's 27 jurisdictions (26 states plus the Federal District) after the October 2026 elections. The 26% probability reflects that achieving representation across all 27 regions simultaneously is a high bar for any single party. The PSD's current standing, regional strength variations, and competitive dynamics with rival parties like PL and União Progressista drive this assessment. The October 2026 election results will definitively resolve whether the party achieves this geographic sweep, making pre-election polling and PSD performance in early contests key indicators of movement in this probability.
- ›PSD's current regional presence and whether it has competitive candidates in all 27 jurisdictions heading into October 2026
- ›Historical precedent: whether any party has previously won at least one seat in all 27 Brazilian governorships simultaneously
- ›Fragmentation among PSD's competitors and whether vote-splitting reduces PSD's ability to win in competitive regions
- ›The electoral strength of rival parties (PL at 21¢ and União Progressista at 27¢) in overlapping regions where PSD needs coverage
- ›Early election indicators between now and October 2026, including primary results, coalition dynamics, and regional polling shifts
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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