Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
3 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2027
513 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 2
Will PL hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Cluster 3
Will União Progressista hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial elections
Analysis
This contract asks whether the PSD party will hold at least one governorship seat across all 27 Brazilian states and federal district after the October 2026 gubernatorial elections. At 26% probability, markets assess this as unlikely but plausible. The PSD's current strength in several state-level races and its historical positioning as a moderate centrist party support higher odds, while consolidation among larger parties and regional power shifts could reduce their presence. The main driver of uncertainty is the fragmentation of Brazil's political landscape and how voter preferences align across diverse regional contests. Resolution occurs after the October 2, 2026 election when official results determine whether PSD wins at least one governorship seat.
- ›PSD's current performance in opinion polling across major state races relative to competitors
- ›The degree of political consolidation or fragmentation among center-right and centrist parties competing in 2026
- ›Regional voting patterns and whether PSD maintains strongholds in specific states where it currently has influence
- ›Whether major national political developments between now and October 2026 reshape state-level alliances and candidate viability
- ›The threshold for this outcome is extremely low (one seat minimum across 27 contests), making complete party elimination unlikely despite competitive pressure
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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