Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market has experienced significant recent momentum, rising 7 cents over seven days to 27¢, though zero 24-hour volume suggests this movement may lack conviction or liquidity.
Analysis
The market has experienced significant recent momentum, rising 7 cents over seven days to 27¢, though zero 24-hour volume suggests this movement may lack conviction or liquidity. The extreme 400% implied yield on the Yes side combined with modest $12,785 open interest and a 4¢ spread indicates this is a thin, speculative market where large positions could move prices substantially. With 260 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the low probability pricing may reflect genuine uncertainty about Nicolás Maduro's willingness to hold elections, though the cliff risk index of 3 suggests meaningful tail risks that could rapidly shift market sentiment.
Resolution rules
If Venezuela holds a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXELECTVENEZUELA-27JAN01 yes 100