Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. The 43¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about Venezuelan electoral timing, with the Yes side offering an exceptionally high 128% annualized yield—a notable premium suggesting either underpricing of election likelihood or compensation for political risk.
Analysis
The 43¢ price reflects genuine uncertainty about Venezuelan electoral timing, with the Yes side offering an exceptionally high 128% annualized yield—a notable premium suggesting either underpricing of election likelihood or compensation for political risk. Zero 24-hour volume and modest $4,444 open interest indicate thin liquidity, making the 6¢ spread relatively wide and limiting practical tradability despite the long 411-day runway to expiry. The neutral regime score and minimal cliff risk suggest this is a stable, information-driven market rather than one driven by near-term catalysts, though traders should account for the illiquidity when sizing positions.
Resolution rules
If Venezuela holds a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXELECTVENEZUELA-27JUN01 yes 100