SimpleFunctions

Victoria Monet · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Victoria Monet is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #13 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Price history

4¢ current

+2¢
0¢25¢
Aug 20, 2026Aug 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Victoria Monet has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Victoria Monet

Rank

#13 of 16

Leader

Rod Wave 82¢

Range

1¢-82¢

Family volume

$42K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-VIC

Aug 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

4¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

Ask

15¢

Spread

13¢

Reported volume

$326

Family rank

#13 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$42K

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 15¢

Kalshi
13¢ spread
BidSize
100¢300
2¢45
AskSize
15¢1
16¢20
17¢25
21¢5
27¢48

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Victoria Monet has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-VIC

SF Signal
SF Index
9674.05
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

9674.1%

IY (No)

9.3%

Adj IY

9674%

CRI

32

RV

4263%

VR

5.99

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

9674.1%
9.3%
Adj IY
9674%
32
RV
4263%
VR
5.99
IAR
0.8/h
Overround
7.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.