What will the announcers say during Cubs vs Brewers Professional Baseball Game

The yield curve displays a remarkably flat structure across all observable tenors, with all 94 constituent markets clustered at either 15 or 17 days to resolution. Within the 15-day bucket, YES probabilities range from 1% (KXMLBMENTION-26JUN26CHCMIL-NQE) to 96% (KXMLBMENTION-26JUN26LADSD-OHTA), while the single 17-day observation shows probabilities between 21% and 78%. The extreme heterogeneity within each tenor bucket reflects not a term structure but rather categorical variation—these markets are segmented by team and outcome type rather than time. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around specific outcomes: NQE markets trade at 1-3%, NO markets at 5-8%, and WHAT markets at 9-13%, suggesting these represent low-probability event categories rather than time-based pricing dynamics. The market's current structure implies no meaningful temporal differentiation in expectations. Because virtually all markets resolve within a 2-day window (15-17 days), the curve cannot reveal whether participants expect the event to occur imminently or be delayed. The flat structure simply indicates that market participants are pricing each categorical outcome independently without adjusting for time decay or accumulating information. The high trading volumes on certain contracts (KXMLBMENTION-26JUN26LADSD-OHTA at $316.59, KXMLBMENTION-26JUN27NYYBOS-MVP at $293.91) suggest active disagreement on specific outcomes rather than consensus about timing, indicating the market views this as primarily a categorical prediction problem rather than a temporal one.