Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that Will exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 363% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 54.9% on the No side, suggesting the 32¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly two gubernatorial losses relative to other outcomes.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 363% annualized yield on the Yes side versus 54.9% on the No side, suggesting the 32¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of exactly two gubernatorial losses relative to other outcomes. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with just $442 open interest indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to wide swings on even modest order flow. With 259 days to expiry and a narrow 1¢ spread, this appears to be a niche market where informed traders could find value, though execution risk is substantial given the thin order book.
Resolution rules
If exactly 2 governors lose re-election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXLOSEREELECTIONGOV-2026-2 yes 100