SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate123 markets

What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season

event base · KXNFLDIVISIONORDER

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 19 Sep 2026Methodology
24h volume
$631
Constituents
123
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
70.0%
New York G

Outcome probabilities

123 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The prediction market exhibits a flat yield curve structure, with all 123 constituent markets sharing an identical 135-day tenor. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional term structure. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster around 1-3%, including KXNFLDIVISIONORDER-27AFCNORTH-PITBALCINCLE at 2.0%, KXNFLDIVISIONORDER-27AFCWEST-KCLACLVDEN at 1.0%, and KXNFLDIVISIONORDER-27NFCEAST-NYGPHIDALWAS at 1.0%. Conversely, the highest probabilities reach 42.0% for KXNFLDIVISIONORDER-27AFCEAST-BUFNENYJMIA. This wide distribution across outcomes—rather than variation across time horizons—indicates the market is pricing relative likelihoods of specific division orderings rather than temporal uncertainty about event occurrence. The flat tenor structure combined with concentrated trading activity in select markets suggests the market views the event resolution date as fixed and certain, with all uncertainty centered on which outcome materializes. The highest volume concentration appears in specific outcomes like BUFNENYJMIA (42.0%, $108.01 vol24h) and PHIDALNYGWAS (10.0%, $525.39 vol24h), indicating informed participants have differentiated conviction about particular division orderings. The prevalence of 1-10% probabilities across most markets reflects the combinatorial complexity of ranking four teams per division—with 24 possible orderings per division and multiple divisions, most individual outcomes carry low baseline probability. The market's current pricing structure reveals consensus

Generated 9/19/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

123 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Philadelphia / 2: Washington / 3: Dallas / 4: New York G4mo70.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Minnesota / 2: Green Bay / 3: Detroit / 4: Chicago4mo70.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: San Francisco / 2: Los Angeles R / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona4mo70.0%$1
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Minnesota / 2: Chicago / 3: Green Bay / 4: Detroit4mo58.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Buffalo / 2: New England / 3: New York J / 4: Miami4mo43.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Baltimore / 2: Cincinnati / 3: Pittsburgh / 4: Cleveland4mo24.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Houston / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Indianapolis / 4: Tennessee4mo23.0%$15
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles C / 2: Kansas City / 3: Las Vegas / 4: Denver4mo20.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Jacksonville / 2: Houston / 3: Indianapolis / 4: Tennessee4mo18.0%$15
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Kansas City / 2: Denver / 3: Los Angeles C / 4: Las Vegas4mo18.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Chicago / 2: Green Bay / 3: Detroit / 4: Minnesota4mo18.0%$4
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Cincinnati / 2: Baltimore / 3: Pittsburgh / 4: Cleveland4mo17.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New England / 2: Buffalo / 3: New York J / 4: Miami4mo16.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Houston / 2: Indianapolis / 3: Jacksonville / 4: Tennessee4mo16.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Kansas City / 2: Denver / 3: Las Vegas / 4: Los Angeles C4mo16.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles C / 2: Denver / 3: Kansas City / 4: Las Vegas4mo16.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Denver / 2: Kansas City / 3: Los Angeles C / 4: Las Vegas4mo15.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Denver / 2: Kansas City / 3: Las Vegas / 4: Los Angeles C4mo15.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Las Vegas / 2: Denver / 3: Kansas City / 4: Los Angeles C4mo15.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Seattle / 2: Arizona / 3: San Francisco / 4: Los Angeles R4mo15.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Green Bay / 2: Chicago / 3: Detroit / 4: Minnesota4mo14.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Minnesota / 2: Detroit / 3: Chicago / 4: Green Bay4mo14.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Seattle / 2: San Francisco / 3: Los Angeles R / 4: Arizona4mo14.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Indianapolis / 2: Houston / 3: Jacksonville / 4: Tennessee4mo13.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Baltimore / 2: Cleveland / 3: Cincinnati / 4: Pittsburgh4mo12.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Jacksonville / 2: Houston / 3: Tennessee / 4: Indianapolis4mo12.0%$197
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Dallas / 2: New York G / 3: Philadelphia / 4: Washington4mo12.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Chicago / 2: Detroit / 3: Minnesota / 4: Green Bay4mo12.0%$39
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New Orleans / 2: Atlanta / 3: Carolina / 4: Tampa Bay4mo12.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Tampa Bay / 2: Carolina / 3: Atlanta / 4: New Orleans4mo12.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Buffalo / 2: Miami / 3: New England / 4: New York J4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Jacksonville / 2: Indianapolis / 3: Tennessee / 4: Houston4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Denver / 2: Los Angeles C / 3: Las Vegas / 4: Kansas City4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New York G / 2: Philadelphia / 3: Dallas / 4: Washington4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Washington / 2: Philadelphia / 3: Dallas / 4: New York G4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Detroit / 2: Minnesota / 3: Chicago / 4: Green Bay4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Atlanta / 2: Carolina / 3: New Orleans / 4: Tampa Bay4mo11.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New York J / 2: Buffalo / 3: New England / 4: Miami4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Baltimore / 2: Pittsburgh / 3: Cincinnati / 4: Cleveland4mo10.0%$125
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Pittsburgh / 2: Cincinnati / 3: Baltimore / 4: Cleveland4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Houston / 2: Indianapolis / 3: Tennessee / 4: Jacksonville4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Houston / 2: Tennessee / 3: Jacksonville / 4: Indianapolis4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Tennessee / 2: Houston / 3: Jacksonville / 4: Indianapolis4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Philadelphia / 2: Dallas / 3: New York G / 4: Washington4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Philadelphia / 2: New York G / 3: Washington / 4: Dallas4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Philadelphia / 2: Washington / 3: New York G / 4: Dallas4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Detroit / 2: Minnesota / 3: Green Bay / 4: Chicago4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Minnesota / 2: Green Bay / 3: Chicago / 4: Detroit4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New Orleans / 2: Atlanta / 3: Tampa Bay / 4: Carolina4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New Orleans / 2: Carolina / 3: Atlanta / 4: Tampa Bay4mo10.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles R / 2: San Francisco / 3: Seattle / 4: Arizona4mo10.0%$9
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Buffalo / 2: New York J / 3: New England / 4: Miami4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Pittsburgh / 2: Baltimore / 3: Cleveland / 4: Cincinnati4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Pittsburgh / 2: Cleveland / 3: Baltimore / 4: Cincinnati4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Indianapolis / 2: Jacksonville / 3: Houston / 4: Tennessee4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Dallas / 2: Washington / 3: Philadelphia / 4: New York G4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: New York G / 2: Dallas / 3: Philadelphia / 4: Washington4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC East at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Washington / 2: Philadelphia / 3: New York G / 4: Dallas4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Carolina / 2: New Orleans / 3: Tampa Bay / 4: Atlanta4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Carolina / 2: Tampa Bay / 3: New Orleans / 4: Atlanta4mo9.0%$81
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Tampa Bay / 2: Atlanta / 3: Carolina / 4: New Orleans4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Seattle / 2: Los Angeles R / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: San Francisco / 2: Seattle / 3: Los Angeles R / 4: Arizona4mo9.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Cleveland / 2: Cincinnati / 3: Baltimore / 4: Pittsburgh4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Kansas City / 2: Los Angeles C / 3: Denver / 4: Las Vegas4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Kansas City / 2: Las Vegas / 3: Denver / 4: Los Angeles C4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles C / 2: Denver / 3: Las Vegas / 4: Kansas City4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Chicago / 2: Minnesota / 3: Green Bay / 4: Detroit4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Detroit / 2: Green Bay / 3: Chicago / 4: Minnesota4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Green Bay / 2: Minnesota / 3: Detroit / 4: Chicago4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC North at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Minnesota / 2: Detroit / 3: Green Bay / 4: Chicago4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Atlanta / 2: New Orleans / 3: Tampa Bay / 4: Carolina4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Atlanta / 2: Tampa Bay / 3: Carolina / 4: New Orleans4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Atlanta / 2: Tampa Bay / 3: New Orleans / 4: Carolina4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Carolina / 2: Tampa Bay / 3: Atlanta / 4: New Orleans4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC South at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Tampa Bay / 2: New Orleans / 3: Carolina / 4: Atlanta4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: Arizona / 4: San Francisco4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the NFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Los Angeles R / 2: Seattle / 3: San Francisco / 4: Arizona4mo8.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Denver / 2: Las Vegas / 3: Kansas City / 4: Los Angeles C4mo7.0%$0
What will be the exact order of standings for the AFC West at the conclusion of the 2026-27 Pro Football regular season?: 1: Las Vegas / 2: Kansas City / 3: Los Angeles C / 4: Denver4mo7.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 123 constituents.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KXNFLDIVISIONORDER on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Sat, 19 Sep 2026 06:23:19 GMT.