Will the Washington pro football team win at least 1 games this season

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across all 258-day tenor markets, with YES probabilities declining sharply as markets progress through the outcome spectrum. The earliest markets (positions 1-3) cluster around 82-84%, while mid-range markets (positions 6-8) fall to 56-66%, and tail-end markets (positions 11-15) compress to just 1-2%. The cheapest YES probability appears in the extreme tail at position 15 with 1.0%, though positions 11-14 hover near 2%. This steep decline is consistent across all four team groupings (WAS, TEN, TB, SF, SEA), suggesting the market has converged on a clear hierarchical view of outcome likelihoods. The SF markets show marginally higher probabilities in early positions (84% for positions 1-3) compared to TEN markets (82-84%), indicating slight team-specific differentiation, though the overall architecture remains steeply downward-sloping. This steep downward slope reflects a market consensus that concentrates probability mass heavily in the lower-outcome ranges while assigning minimal credence to extreme scenarios. The clustering of 84% probabilities across positions 1-3 and the rapid deterioration thereafter suggests the market views the most likely outcome as occurring in the lower-to-mid range of the distribution, with tail risks priced as remote. The zero trading volume across nearly all markets indicates these are theoretical prices rather than actively discovered values, yet the internal consistency of the curve across team groupings implies the market structure itself—likely reflecting win-margin or performance-threshold brackets—is driving the probability distribution. The market is essentially saying that while some outcome is highly probable (84%), extreme outcomes in either direction are highly unlikely, with the