Will the Tennessee pro football team win at least 6 games this season

The yield curve displays a pronounced downward slope across all four team buckets (WAS, TEN, TB, SF, SEA), with YES probabilities declining sharply from high-confidence outcomes at the near end to tail-risk pricing at the far end. The WAS bucket shows the steepest gradient, dropping from 98% at the shortest tenor to just 1% at the longest, while SF and SEA maintain similarly steep declines. Within each bucket, the cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the 1-3% range at the longest tenors (e.g., KXNFLWINS-27WAS-12 at 1%, KXNFLWINS-27TB-13 at 1%, KXNFLWINS-27SF-16 at 2%), indicating these represent extreme tail outcomes. The curve exhibits no flattening or inversion; instead, it maintains consistent downward pressure across all team families, suggesting a uniform market structure rather than differentiated expectations between teams. This steeply downward-sloping curve reveals that the market is pricing in a highly concentrated probability mass around near-term resolution, with the event expected to resolve decisively in one direction rather than remaining uncertain. The sharp drop from 90%+ probabilities at the shortest tenors to single-digit probabilities at longer horizons indicates the market expects clarity to emerge quickly—within the 100-day window—rather than prolonged ambiguity. The consistent steepness across all team buckets suggests this is not about specific team performance uncertainty but rather about the fundamental nature of the event itself, implying the market views the outcome as likely to be determined soon and with high confidence, leaving minimal probability mass for delayed or uncertain resolution.