SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

NFL Team Season Win Total Markets — 432 contracts, SF signal on every row.

432 live Kalshi contracts (385 audited). Median implied probability sits at 63%. 33 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXNFLWINS-27CIN-4 -22c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 31.4pp · cheapest KXNFLWINS-27ARI-9 · richest KXNFLWINS-27DET-3.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXNFLWINS.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXNFLWINS
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXNFLWINS
example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXNFLWINS",
    "label": "NFL Team Season Win Total Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 432,
    "volume24hSum": 36367.27,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00303
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 08 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$36.4K+15%
min $20.1Kmax $50.4K
Breadth-56%-22.2pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity
warming up — first reading at 03:30 UTC
Aug 1past 7d · UTCAug 8 · 02:23

Live contracts

432

Median IY

63¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$36.4K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-22¢

KXNFLWINS-27CIN-4

NFL Team Season Win Total Markets — liquidity topography (top 143 of 432 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 19.5 7236.9%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d7236.93628.219.5

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in NFL Team Season Win Total Markets

Showing top 20 of 432

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will the Dallas pro football team win at least 13 games this season?: 13+ wins15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge RVol 407%Resid $3.2K
Will the Seattle pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins55¢
IY 183%Cliff 1Edge RVol 321%Resid $2.6K
Will the Arizona pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins40¢
IY 336%Cliff 2Edge RVol 270%Resid $1.6K
Will the Denver pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins39¢
IY 350%Cliff 2Edge RVol 174%Resid $1.5K
Will the Dallas pro football team win at least 10 games this season?: 10+ wins48¢
IY 242%Cliff 1Edge RVol 175%Resid $1.3K
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins63¢
IY 131%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $1.2K
Will the Miami pro football team win at least 5 games this season?: 5+ wins35¢
IY 416%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $1.2K
Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins45¢
IY 274%Cliff 1Edge RVol 122%Resid $1.2K
Will the Minnesota pro football team win at least 9 games this season?: 9+ wins53¢
IY 198%Cliff 1Edge RVol 168%Resid $1.1K
Will the Philadelphia pro football team win at least 14 games this season?: 14+ wins11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge RVol Resid $1000
Will the New York G pro football team win at least 8 games this season?: 8+ wins50¢
IY 224%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $817
Will the Houston pro football team win at least 14 games this season?: 14+ wins11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge RVol Resid $592
Will the Arizona pro football team win at least 4 games this season?: 4+ wins57¢
IY 169%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $558
Will the Los Angeles R pro football team win at least 15 games this season?: 15+ wins17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge RVol 501%Resid $552
Will the Dallas pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins36¢
IY 398%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $542
Will the Las Vegas pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins45¢
IY 274%Cliff 1Edge RVol Resid $530
Will the Houston pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins45¢
IY 274%Cliff 1Edge RVol 232%Resid $499
Will the New York J pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins30¢
IY 522%Cliff 2Edge RVol 403%Resid $484
Will the Cleveland pro football team win at least 7 games this season?: 7+ wins38¢
IY 365%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $461
Will the Green Bay pro football team win at least 11 games this season?: 11+ wins37¢
IY 381%Cliff 2Edge RVol Resid $430
432 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in NFL Team Season Win Total Markets

From market_changes

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 08 Aug 2026 03:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXNFLWINS

Category view

All Kalshi Sports markets. /markets/category/sports

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →