Will Arizona win at least 1 game in the first 4 weeks

The yield curve for KXNFLWINSWEEK exhibits a flat structure across all observable tenors, with all constituent markets clustering at tau=48 days. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display substantial variation across the 32 NFL teams represented, ranging from lows of 4.0% (Cincinnati, Jacksonville) to highs of 92.0% (Detroit, Green Bay, Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers). The cheapest YES probabilities appear concentrated in the 4.0%-7.0% range for lower-probability outcomes, while the most expensive cluster around 87.0%-92.0% for favored teams. This wide dispersion within a single time horizon reflects team-specific win probability differentials rather than temporal dynamics, with the market pricing distinct confidence levels for individual matchups occurring within the same week. The flat tenor structure and uniform 48-day resolution window indicate the market is pricing a discrete, near-term event—specifically NFL Week 4 games occurring on a fixed date. The absence of longer-dated tenors suggests no meaningful market for speculating on alternative resolution timelines. The market's current view encodes team strength asymmetrically: strong teams like Detroit, Green Bay, and Kansas City command 92% YES probabilities, while weaker teams like Cincinnati and Jacksonville trade at 4%, reflecting consensus expectations about game outcomes. The concentration of all liquidity at a single tenor point, combined with highly differentiated probabilities by team, indicates the market views this event as temporally certain but outcome-uncertain—the when is fixed, but the who will win remains genuinely contested.