Will Centre Party receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Swedish general election

The yield curve for KXVOTESWEDEN exhibits a completely flat structure across all 41 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 384 days to resolution. Within this single tenor bucket, the curve displays a pronounced downward slope in YES probabilities as one moves across political parties and outcome categories. The CENTRE party shows the highest concentration of probability mass, with YES prices at 80.0% for the baseline outcome, declining to just 2.0-3.0% at the extreme tails. Similar patterns appear across GREEN (80.0% peak), MODERATE (80.0% peak), SD (78.0% peak), and SDP (80.0% peak) groupings. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster in the 2.0-3.0% range across multiple tail outcomes, suggesting these represent genuine tail-risk pricing rather than liquidity artifacts. Notably, all markets show zero 24-hour volume, indicating this is a stale snapshot of a potentially illiquid market. The flat tenor structure prevents any traditional yield-curve analysis about timing expectations. However, the cross-sectional probability distribution across party outcomes reveals the market's current consensus: a strong expectation that one of the center-left or center-right parties (CENTRE, MODERATE, SD, or SDP) will achieve the largest vote share in the Swedish election, with CENTRE appearing marginally favored at 80.0%. The extreme tail probabilities of 2-3% for outlier outcomes suggest the market assigns meaningful but modest probability to unexpected results. The absence of any near-term tenor markets means this curve cannot distinguish whether the market expects the event outcome to be determined quickly or gradually; it only captures the aggregate 384-day forward view of Swedish electoral outcomes.