59-point contagion gap in Claude Opus score markets — sell the laggard
C1 and C2 show trigger contracts (above 1460/1465) have fallen 34 and 32 delta points respectively, while the lagging above-1505 contract remains at 60c — a -59c gap. By logical necessity, above-1505 cannot resolve YES unless all lower thresholds also resolve YES, meaning the laggard is structurally overpriced. C8 confirms the reverse: the above-1460 contract at 60c is underpriced relative to above-1505 at 60c given the trigger has already moved. Sell the 60c above-1505 contract immediately.
The Claude Opus debut score markets show a textbook contagion structure: lower-threshold contracts (above 1460, 1465, 1470) have already repriced down 24-34 delta points, while the above-1505 lagging contract remains stuck at 60c — creating 51-59 point gaps that are pure structural lag, not new information. These markets must converge by definition since a score above 1505 logically implies above 1460/1465/1470, making the overpriced upper-threshold contracts the clean short.
CatalystClaude Opus official benchmark score release
RiskMarkets on different resolution criteria or timing; liquidity prevents full arb capture
WatchAbove-1505 contract reprices down to below 30c to close gap · by 2026-08-10
sf ideas && sf book KXARENASCORE-OPUS49-1505