98pt contagion gap: CA-47 Democratic win massively under-repriced
C1 shows a 98pt gap — trigger (Begich -47¢ delta) has cratered while CA-47 Democratic win lags at 85¢. C2 confirms the same gap (97pts) via the Barlow trigger. Two independent Republican candidate collapses both point to the same lagging market. At 85¢, the Democratic CA-47 win should be repricing toward 90-95¢. The edge is the 10-15¢ upside with defined resolution at the November 2026 election.
Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.
CatalystRepublican candidate polling continues to deteriorate; Democratic candidate consolidation
RiskLate Republican candidate surge; third-party spoiler effect
WatchYES — Democrat wins CA-47 House race · by 2026-11-10
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