MN-2 Democrat win at 19c: 73c contagion lag is the edge
C2 shows a trigger delta of +18 on the Alaska margin-of-victory market while MN-2 lags at just 19c — a 73c contagion gap. C1 shows a 76c gap from the Ted Cruz trigger. Corroborating signal from C3 (OH-1 trigger with -26 delta, 60c gap) all point to the same lagging market being systematically underpriced. At 19c with three independent corroborating triggers all flashing buy, MN-2 Democratic win is the clearest contagion trade in the dataset.
Democrats are heavy favorites at 85c for House control while Senate is a coin-flip at 52c Republican, creating a structural spread between chambers that contagion gaps in individual district races have not yet closed. The MN-2 lagging market at 19c is dramatically out of step with correlated district triggers showing 60–76c gaps, representing a pure contagion lag edge. Senate and House control markets offer a mean-reversion spread for sophisticated positioning.
CatalystContinued movement in correlated district races; early voting data releases
RiskMN-2 has district-specific factors (incumbency, local economy) not captured by national triggers
WatchMN-2 Democrat win contract reprices to 40c+ from 19c entry · by 2026-11-04
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