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·2026 Elections·Updated 2h ago·7 contracts

Report: 2028 Presidential Race Already a Top Market, High Volume on Primary Candidates

Traders are actively positioning for the 2028 presidential race, with high-volume markets on primary contenders like Gavin Newsom (13¢) and J.D. Vance (43¢) showing significant liquidity for long-duration contracts.

Avg price
21¢
across related markets
Contracts
7
related to this dispatch
24h volume
$318k
combined contract volume
Venues
Kalshi
single-venue listed

Cross-market probability snapshot

Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.

Key takeaways

  • 01

    Traders are actively positioning for the 2028 presidential race, with high-volume markets on primary contenders like Gavin Newsom (13¢) and J.D.

  • 02

    Vance (43¢) showing significant liquidity for long-duration contracts. **U.S.

  • 03

    While long-term, the sheer volume of trading indicates significant interest in the next cycle.

Full analysis

**U.S. Presidential Election (2028) Markets See Heavy Activity, with Key Primary Contenders Emerging**

The 2028 presidential election is already a major focus in prediction markets, with a large number of contracts on both the Democratic and Republican nominations. While long-term, the sheer volume of trading indicates significant interest in the next cycle.

On the Democratic side, the field is wide open. Several potential nominees have active contracts, but the prices are very low, suggesting high uncertainty. The most notable markets include those for Gavin Newsom (13¢, vol:77811), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (18¢, vol:70456), and Jon Ossoff (17¢, vol:14493). Other names like Pete Buttigieg (5¢), Kamala Harris (9¢), and Michelle Obama (1¢) also have significant volume, though at very different price points. The market for the general election "Who will win the next presidential election?" is also actively traded, with contracts for Jon Ossoff at 19¢ (vol:49582) and AOC at 12¢ (vol:88871).

For Republicans, the field is more concentrated. The leading contender is J.D. Vance (43¢, vol:3663), followed by Marco Rubio (22¢, vol:3225) and Ron DeSantis (5¢, vol:16973). There's also notable volume on Donald J. Trump himself, though he's only at 2¢ (vol:14233), reflecting the market's skepticism about a third run. The market for the general election also includes a contract for Marco Rubio at 12¢ (vol:9552).

While these are long-dated markets, the high volume suggests traders are trying to establish positions early, anticipating that a clear frontrunner will emerge as the 2028 cycle begins in earnest. Key catalysts to watch include fundraising reports, media appearances, and early state polls.

Related markets

Source markets at a glance

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