Report: 2028 Presidential Race Already a Top Market, High Volume on Primary Candidates
Traders are actively positioning for the 2028 presidential race, with high-volume markets on primary contenders like Gavin Newsom (13¢) and J.D. Vance (43¢) showing significant liquidity for long-duration contracts.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
13¢Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
18¢Will Jon Ossoff be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Jon Ossoff
17¢Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
43¢Will Marco Rubio be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Marco Rubio
22¢Who will win the next presidential election?: J.D. Vance
19¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Traders are actively positioning for the 2028 presidential race, with high-volume markets on primary contenders like Gavin Newsom (13¢) and J.D.
- 02
Vance (43¢) showing significant liquidity for long-duration contracts. **U.S.
- 03
While long-term, the sheer volume of trading indicates significant interest in the next cycle.
Full analysis
**U.S. Presidential Election (2028) Markets See Heavy Activity, with Key Primary Contenders Emerging**
The 2028 presidential election is already a major focus in prediction markets, with a large number of contracts on both the Democratic and Republican nominations. While long-term, the sheer volume of trading indicates significant interest in the next cycle.
On the Democratic side, the field is wide open. Several potential nominees have active contracts, but the prices are very low, suggesting high uncertainty. The most notable markets include those for Gavin Newsom (13¢, vol:77811), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (18¢, vol:70456), and Jon Ossoff (17¢, vol:14493). Other names like Pete Buttigieg (5¢), Kamala Harris (9¢), and Michelle Obama (1¢) also have significant volume, though at very different price points. The market for the general election "Who will win the next presidential election?" is also actively traded, with contracts for Jon Ossoff at 19¢ (vol:49582) and AOC at 12¢ (vol:88871).
For Republicans, the field is more concentrated. The leading contender is J.D. Vance (43¢, vol:3663), followed by Marco Rubio (22¢, vol:3225) and Ron DeSantis (5¢, vol:16973). There's also notable volume on Donald J. Trump himself, though he's only at 2¢ (vol:14233), reflecting the market's skepticism about a third run. The market for the general election also includes a contract for Marco Rubio at 12¢ (vol:9552).
While these are long-dated markets, the high volume suggests traders are trying to establish positions early, anticipating that a clear frontrunner will emerge as the 2028 cycle begins in earnest. Key catalysts to watch include fundraising reports, media appearances, and early state polls.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
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sf query "presidential nomination 2028"