NH-1 and IL-17 lag 90pts behind trigger — sweep the basket
C5 and C7 show NH-1 (78¢) and IL-17 (82¢) lagging 90pt and 87pt behind the Begich trigger collapse. C6 confirms NH-1 via the Barlow trigger at 89pt gap. Buying both at current prices captures the contagion cascade before it fully propagates. The highlights separately note Democrats are 85¢ favorites to win the House overall, making individual district longs structurally supported. Basket approach diversifies single-district resolution risk.
Trigger markets show Republican candidates (Begich, Barlow) falling sharply — down 47¢ and 45¢ respectively — yet Democratic win markets in CA-47, OH-13, NH-1, and IL-17 still price at 77-85¢, creating contagion gaps of 87-98pts. The lagging markets have not absorbed the negative signal from the Republican primary trigger markets. This is a classic contagion lag trade: buy Democratic district wins before the repricing cascade.
CatalystDistrict-level polling releases; national generic ballot shifts
RiskLocal candidate scandal; NH-1 historically competitive — genuine toss-up risk
WatchYES on both NH-1 and IL-17 Democratic wins · by 2026-11-10
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