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Before Nov 1, 2026 · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before

Before Nov 1, 2026 is priced at 5¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 3¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 9 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.

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Price history

5¢ current

−7¢
0¢10¢20¢
Jul 26, 2026Aug 24, 2026

Contract brief

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Nov 1, 2026

Rank

#7 of 9

Leader

Before Jan 20, 2029 34¢

Range

1¢-34¢

Family volume

$11K

Identifier

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV

Aug 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Implied probability

5¢
Latest venue quote
Aug 25, 2026, 4:38 AM UTC · 1h ago

Bid

3¢

Ask

5¢

Spread

2¢

24h volume

$540

Family rank

#7 of 9

9 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Family volume

$11K

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 5¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢32K
3¢462
2¢5.5K
AskSize
5¢1.1K
6¢400
7¢3.6K
8¢17K
9¢500

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

Identifier

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV

SF Signal
SF Index
8623.04
Regime
taker

Event family

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$11K

Outcomes

9

Highest price

Before Jan 20, 2029 34¢

Current share

5%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

Before Jan 20, 2029

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20

34¢
$65$65—

Before Jan 1, 2028

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28

23¢
$4$4—

Before Mar 1, 2027

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27MAR

9¢
$57$57—

Before Jan 1, 2027

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27

7¢
$2K$2K—

Before Feb 1, 2027

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27FEB

7¢
$62$62—

Before Dec 1, 2026

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC

5¢
$1K$1K0.2

Before Nov 1, 2026

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV

3¢
$540$565—

Before Oct 1, 2026

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT

1¢
$7K$7K—

Before Sep 1, 2026

kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP

1¢
$3$3—

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

17246.1%

IY (No)

16.5%

Adj IY

8623%

CRI

32

EE

-6.000

Overround

-0.1%

Regime

taker

Score

0.625

Full indicator table

IY (Yes)
17246.1%
IY (No)
16.5%
Adj IY
8623%
CRI
32
EE
-6.000
Overround
-0.1%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.