Before December · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Before December is priced at 60¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 10 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
Price history
60¢ current
+16¢Contract brief
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before December
Rank
#4 of 10
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 81¢
Range
10¢-81¢
Family volume
$559K
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
May 24, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
64¢
Ask
67¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#4 of 10
10 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$559K
Orderbook snapshot
64 / 67¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Event family
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$559K
Outcomes
10
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 81¢
Current share
1%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Before 2028
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Before November
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV
Before December
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Before 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Before October
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
Before September
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Before August
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Before July
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Before June
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUN
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.