Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?
Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. The market has surged 67% over seven days to 67¢, pricing in a two-thirds probability of a new Iranian nuclear deal by September 2026, though the extreme 493.6% implied yield on the "No" side suggests significant tail risk skepticism.
Analysis
The market has surged 67% over seven days to 67¢, pricing in a two-thirds probability of a new Iranian nuclear deal by September 2026, though the extreme 493.6% implied yield on the "No" side suggests significant tail risk skepticism. With only $16.2K open interest and a 5¢ spread on Kalshi, liquidity is thin relative to the volatile 203% realized volatility, making this a high-conviction but illiquid bet. The 0.7 information arrivals per hour and neutral regime indicate steady news flow without directional bias, though the 39-point price jump in a week warrants caution about whether recent geopolitical developments have been fully priced in.
Resolution rules
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (12)
Trade
sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP yes 100