Before Sep 1, 2026 · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before
Before Sep 1, 2026 is priced at 4¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 7 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.
Price history
4¢ current
−17¢Contract brief
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Sep 1, 2026
Rank
#7 of 7
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 53¢
Range
4¢-53¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Jul 21, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$349
Family rank
#7 of 7
7 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Event family
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 53¢
Current share
3%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
Before Sep 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.