Before September · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Before September is priced at 28¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 28¢ bid, 29¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 9 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
Price history
28¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before September
Rank
#6 of 9
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 74¢
Range
7¢-74¢
Family volume
$51K
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Jun 7, 2026, 9:08 PM UTC · 5m ago
Implied probability
Bid
28¢
Ask
29¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$653
Family rank
#6 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Family volume
$51K
Orderbook snapshot
28 / 29¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Event family
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$51K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 74¢
Current share
1%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Before 2028
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Before December
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Before November
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV
Before September
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Before October
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
Before August
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Before July
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Maker / Taker Regime in Prediction Markets: How to Read the Orderbook State
Three regime states (maker-dominated, taker-dominated, neutral) and how to read which one a Kalshi or Polymarket contract is in. Strategy follows regime, not thesis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 28% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.