Before Jan 20, 2029 · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before
Before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 34¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 8 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.
Price history
38¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 8
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 31¢
Range
1¢-31¢
Family volume
$14K
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Sep 20, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 15m ago
Implied probability
Bid
34¢
Ask
38¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 8
8 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$14K
Orderbook snapshot
34 / 38¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Event family
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?: Before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$14K
Outcomes
8
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 31¢
Current share
1%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Before Feb 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27FEB
Before Mar 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-27MAR
Before Jan 1, 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Before Dec 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Before Nov 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV
Before Oct 1, 2026
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 38% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.