What is the current probability for "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 84¢ (84% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 20, 2029. 1005 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8.0% and 165.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing January 20, 2029. The market has surged 15% over seven days to 76¢, pricing in a notably bullish view of nuclear deal prospects with over 1,000 days to expiry, yet the extremely asymmetric implied yields (11.4% for Yes vs.

██████████████████████████████████░░░░░░

84¢

Bid/Ask 82/84¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $4,500.31·OI $7,946.44·Closes Jan 20, 2029·1005d remaining

KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20

7-day price50 snapshots · 67 regime

89¢82¢ current

Apr 1410¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has surged 15% over seven days to 76¢, pricing in a notably bullish view of nuclear deal prospects with over 1,000 days to expiry, yet the extremely asymmetric implied yields (11.4% for Yes vs. 114.5% for No) signal deep skepticism among No holders who demand outsized returns for their conviction. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 2,349% and vol ratio of 39.73 suggest this market experiences violent swings despite thin liquidity ($2.9k open interest), making the current price potentially unstable and vulnerable to sharp reversals on geopolitical news.

Resolution rules

If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8.0%

IY (No) 165.5%

Adj IY 161%

CRI 5

RV 1552%

VR 38.84

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	165.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	161%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1552%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	38.84	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.02	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.625

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 7:35:02 PM

SF edge 54.0¢ no

Edges (6)

NO +54¢thesis — Putin profits from Iran war oil prices. Russian military budget fully funded. Uk

NO +45¢thesis — US freezes Russian assets, sanctions Iran, bombs Iran — each action tells the wo

NO +66¢thesis — The United States will launch a ground invasion of Iran. After 5 weeks of airstr

NO +54¢thesis — The Hormuz Strait is America's final battle — not because it will lose militaril

NO +45¢thesis — MAGA splits over Iran war. Anti-interventionist wing vs hawks. Joe Kent resignat

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 7:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →