Before Jan 20, 2029 · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Before Jan 20, 2029 is priced at 75¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 75¢ bid, 76¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
Price history
75¢ current
+4¢Contract brief
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 20, 2029
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Before Jan 20, 2029 75¢
Range
11¢-75¢
Family volume
$61K
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Jun 5, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 8m ago
Implied probability
Bid
75¢
Ask
76¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$236
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Family volume
$61K
Orderbook snapshot
75 / 76¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the United States has agreed to, signed, or accepted a new Iran-US nuclear deal before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 20, 2029
Identifier
KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Event family
Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$61K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Before Jan 20, 2029 75¢
Current share
0%
Before Jan 20, 2029
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-29JAN20
Before 2028
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-28
Before 2027
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27
Before November
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26NOV
Before December
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26DEC
Before October
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26OCT
Before September
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26SEP
Before August
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26AUG
Before July
kalshi · KXUSAIRANAGREEMENT-27-26JUL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.625
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 75% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.