SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Health prediction markets — disease, regulatory, public health.

12 Kalshi-classified live questions across 12 Kalshi contracts, $2,012 of 24h volume. 7 sit in coin-flip territory. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=health.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/health
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=health
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 21 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 03:45 UTC
Vol Flow$2.0K-74%
min $1.0Kmax $8.5K
Breadth—
warming up — first reading at 03:45 UTC
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 03:45 UTC
Jun 14past 6d · UTCJun 21 · 02:23

Live contracts

12

24h volume

$2.0K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

58%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

Health — liquidity topography (top 2 of 12 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour.

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d1.00.50.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Health

Showing top 12 of 12

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Pandemic in 2026?7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$2.0K
Will Trump make IVF free?: Before 202914¢
IY 238%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 350048¢
IY 43%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 250068¢
IY 19%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 200085¢
IY 7.0%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 300057¢
IY 30%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 500030¢
IY 92%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 400041¢
IY 57%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 450035¢
IY 73%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will there be a year with zero wild polio cases before 2030?: Before 20304¢
IY 679%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will the FDA approve a cure for Type 1 Diabetes before 2033?: Before 203336¢
IY 27%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will there be a case of polio in the USA this year?12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
12 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 21 Jun 2026 03:38:16 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=health →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=health →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →