SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Social prediction markets — culture, awards, online events.

30 Kalshi-classified live questions across 30 Kalshi contracts, $265 of 24h volume. 3 sit in coin-flip territory. 1 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=social.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/social
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=social
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 27 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 19:00 UTC
Vol Flow$265+41%
min $29max $600
Breadth—
warming up — first reading at 19:00 UTC
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 19:00 UTC
Jun 20past 7d · UTCJun 27 · 18:23

Live contracts

30

24h volume

$265

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

10%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-5¢

KXPUTINDJTLOCATION-29-PRC

Social — liquidity topography (top 4 of 30 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour.

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d1.00.50.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Social

Showing top 20 of 30

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 1, 20275¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$211
Will Dantes be banned from Twitch before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 202718¢
IY 887%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$32
Will New York City add a new 3 star restaurant in 2026?37¢
IY 166%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$17
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: United Arab Emirates10¢
IY 358%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will KaiCenat reach 1200000 or more subscribers?: 1,200,000 or more8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in the USA?: United States5¢
IY 756%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will KaiCenat reach 1000000 or more subscribers?: 1,000,000 or more11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will KaiCenat reach 1100000 or more subscribers?: 1,100,000 or more8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will KaiCenat reach 600000 or more subscribers?: 600,000 or more16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will KaiCenat reach 700000 or more subscribers?: 700,000 or more14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?: MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson), including entities he controls30¢
IY 454%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will clavicular have At least 500000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 500,00062¢
IY 119%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will KaiCenat reach 800000 or more subscribers?: 800,000 or more13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?: Russia6¢
IY 623%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Ukraine?: Ukraine5¢
IY 756%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will clavicular have At least 400000 Followers before Jan 1, 2027?: At least 400,00084¢
IY 37%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?: Between 2025 and 2035?18¢
IY 43%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Alaska7¢
IY 528%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: Germany6¢
IY 623%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Hungary8¢
IY 457%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
30 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Social

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: China
7¢12→7 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 27 Jun 2026 18:38:41 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=social →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=social →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →