SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

Social prediction markets — culture, awards, online events.

28 Kalshi-classified live questions across 28 Kalshi contracts, $416 of 24h volume. 1 sit in coin-flip territory. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=social.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/social
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=social
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 23 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 22:30 UTC
Vol Flow$416+68%
min $0max $1.5K
Breadth33%+133.3pp
min -100%max 33%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 22:30 UTC
Aug 16past 7d · UTCAug 23 · 20:23

Live contracts

28

24h volume

$416

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

4%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

Social — liquidity topography (top 7 of 28 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.3 → 0.3/h

$10$1001d7d30d90d365d0.30.30.3

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Social

Showing top 20 of 28

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Turkey?: Turkey26¢
IY 121%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$227
Will New York City add a new 3 star restaurant in 2026?14¢
IY 708%Cliff 6Edge —RVol 425%Resid —$60
Will Ninja reach at least 10,000 subscribers?: 10,000 or more11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$52
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Russia5¢
IY 805%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$48
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Hungary4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$24
Will Dantes be banned from Twitch before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 202710¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$4
Will KaiCenat reach 600000 or more subscribers?: 600,000 or more8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Alaska7¢
IY 563%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: China37¢
IY 72%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: Turkey4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before Jan 2027?: Before Jan 1, 20274¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: Germany3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will experience a population decrease of at least 10% between 2025 and 2035?: Between 2025 and 2035?16¢
IY 51%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Qatar7¢
IY 563%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: Saudi Arabia4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?: MrBeast (Jimmy Donaldson), including entities he controls27¢
IY 757%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Switzerland?: Switzerland16¢
IY 223%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin next meet?: New York City6¢
IY 664%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Russia?: Russia7¢
IY 564%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Where will Trump and Putin's first meeting after their planned August 15, 2025 meeting in Alaska occur?: United Arab Emirates4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
28 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 23 Aug 2026 21:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=social →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=social →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →