At least 8 · How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least
At least 8 is priced at 19¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least.
Price history
19¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If New York City has less than 115 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
At least 8
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
At least 3 29¢
Range
3¢-29¢
Family volume
$406
Identifier
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-115
Jun 23, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
12¢
Ask
20¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$13K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$406
Orderbook snapshot
12 / 20¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If New York City has less than 115 billionaires in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-115
Event family
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$406
Outcomes
4
Highest price
At least 3 29¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.