How many billionaires will New York City lose this year
Leader sits at 51% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 3
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
At least 8
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$88
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
236 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 3
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-120
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 23
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-100
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 13
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-110
How many billionaires will New York City lose this year?: At least 8
KXNYCBILLIONAIRES-26-115
Analysis
This market estimates a 53% probability that New York City will experience a net loss of billionaires during 2026. The outcome depends primarily on wealth fluctuations driven by stock market performance, business valuations, and major M&A activity involving NYC-based billionaire-led companies. Secondary factors include relocation decisions by high-net-worth individuals and changes in net worth calculations as of year-end. The market will resolve based on billionaire roster counts from tracking organizations like Forbes, typically published in early 2027. Current uncertainty reflects volatility in tech stocks and real estate values, which significantly impact NYC billionaire wealth.
- ›Stock market performance for major NYSE-listed companies owned by NYC billionaires will directly affect whether threshold wealth levels are maintained or crossed
- ›Corporate acquisition or IPO activity in 2026 could rapidly change billionaire status for founders or majority shareholders
- ›Real estate valuations and commercial property market conditions impact billionaire net worth calculations, particularly relevant for NYC-based real estate moguls
- ›Relocation patterns of high-net-worth individuals to other states may reduce NYC's billionaire count independent of wealth changes
- ›Forbes or similar tracking organizations' methodology and timing for year-end billionaire list publication will determine the resolution baseline
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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