How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
8+ freshmen drafted is priced at 94¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 94¢ bid, 95¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 7 inside How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10.
Price history
94¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If at least 8 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
8+ freshmen drafted
Rank
#5 of 7
Leader
5+ freshmen drafted 99¢
Range
28¢-99¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-8
Jun 23, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
94¢
Ask
95¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$157
Family rank
#5 of 7
7 outcomes · How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
94 / 95¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If at least 8 freshmen are drafted in the top 10 of the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
Identifier
KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-8
Event family
How many freshmen players will be drafted in the top 10.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
5+ freshmen drafted 99¢
Current share
2%
5+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-5
4+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-4
6+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-6
7+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-7
8+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-8
9+ freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-9
10 freshmen drafted
kalshi · KXNBADRAFTCAT-26FRE-10
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 94% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
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Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.