SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Song Release Markets — 29 contracts, SF signal on every row.

29 live Kalshi contracts (51 audited). Median implied probability sits at 17%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 25.6pp · cheapest KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-EMI · richest KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-CLA.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXSONGRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXSONGRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Song Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 29,
    "volume24hSum": 39.48,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00024
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 06 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$39+464%
min $0max $5.0K
Breadth-100%0.0pp
min -100%max 62%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:00 UTC
Aug 30past 7d · UTCSep 6 · 04:23

Live contracts

29

Median IY

17¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$39

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

Artist 2026 Song Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 3 of 29 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 793.1 → 2373.3%

$101d7d30d90d2373.31583.2793.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Song Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 29

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Rihanna release a new song 2026?: Rihanna27¢
IY 793%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$21
Will Frank Ocean release a new song 2026?: Frank Ocean11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$17
Will Migos release a new song 2026?: Migos20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol 316%Resid —$2
Will Zara Larsson release a new song 2026?: Zara Larsson3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will NF release a new song 2026?: NF17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Nicki Minaj release a new song 2026?: Nicki Minaj26¢
IY 835%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Olivia Dean release a new song 2026?: Olivia Dean12¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will PARTYNEXTDOOR release a new song 2026?: PARTYNEXTDOOR11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Post Malone release a new song 2026?: Post Malone60¢
IY 196%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Roddy Ricch release a new song 2026?: Roddy Ricch60¢
IY 196%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Shawn Mendes release a new song 2026?: Shawn Mendes3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Tate McRae release a new song 2026?: Tate McRae60¢
IY 196%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will The Weeknd release a new song 2026?: The Weeknd3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Geese release a new song 2026?: Geese3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Justin Bieber release a new song 2026?: Justin Bieber3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Justin Timberlake release a new song 2026?: Justin Timberlake29¢
IY 718%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new song 2026?: Kendrick Lamar60¢
IY 196%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Linkin Park release a new song 2026?: Linkin Park13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will The Marías release a new song 2026?: The Marías70¢
IY 126%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Lil Nas X release a new song 2026?: Lil Nas X3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
29 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 06 Sep 2026 04:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →