SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Song Release Markets — 34 contracts, SF signal on every row.

34 live Kalshi contracts (51 audited). Median implied probability sits at 85%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 14.2pp · cheapest KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-DAF · richest KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-POS.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXSONGRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE
example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXSONGRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Song Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 34,
    "volume24hSum": 119.51,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.01659
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 09 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement68-38.0
min 56max ≥100
Vol Flow$120-67%
min $0max $1.2K
Breadth
warming up — first reading at 09:30 UTC
Activity
warming up — first reading at 09:30 UTC
Aug 2past 7d · UTCAug 9 · 08:23

Live contracts

34

Median IY

85¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$120

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

no 24h moves

Artist 2026 Song Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 2 of 34 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 35.8 173.6%

$10$1001d7d30d90d173.6104.735.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Song Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 34

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Billie Eilish release a new song 2026?: Billie Eilish87¢
IY 36%Cliff 7Edge RVol 81%Resid $119
Will Fall Out Boy release a new song 2026?: Fall Out Boy58¢
IY 174%Cliff 1Edge RVol 98%Resid $1
Will Big Sean release a new song 2026?: Big Sean92¢
IY 21%Cliff 12Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Camilo release a new song 2026?: Camilo92¢
IY 21%Cliff 12Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Chappell Roan release a new song 2026?: Chappell Roan69¢
IY 108%Cliff 2Edge RVol 83%Resid $0
Will Clairo release a new song 2026?: Clairo84¢
IY 46%Cliff 5Edge RVol 68%Resid $0
Will Coldplay release a new song 2026?: Coldplay89¢
IY 30%Cliff 8Edge RVol 64%Resid $0
Will Daft Punk release a new song 2026?: Daft Punk11¢
IY >999%Cliff 8Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Dua Lipa release a new song 2026?: Dua Lipa93¢
IY 18%Cliff 13Edge RVol 61%Resid $0
Will Eminem release a new song 2026?: Eminem85¢
IY 42%Cliff 6Edge RVol 67%Resid $0
Will Frank Ocean release a new song 2026?: Frank Ocean20¢
IY 959%Cliff 4Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Geese release a new song 2026?: Geese84¢
IY 46%Cliff 5Edge RVol 68%Resid $0
Will Ice Spice release a new song 2026?: Ice Spice92¢
IY 21%Cliff 12Edge RVol Resid $0
Will Justin Bieber release a new song 2026?: Justin Bieber78¢
IY 68%Cliff 4Edge RVol 73%Resid $0
Will Justin Timberlake release a new song 2026?: Justin Timberlake78¢
IY 68%Cliff 4Edge RVol 73%Resid $0
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new song 2026?: Kendrick Lamar88¢
IY 33%Cliff 7Edge RVol 63%Resid $0
Will Linkin Park release a new song 2026?: Linkin Park57¢
IY 181%Cliff 1Edge RVol 100%Resid $0
Will The Marías release a new song 2026?: The Marías90¢
IY 27%Cliff 9Edge RVol 63%Resid $0
Will Mariah Carey release a new song 2026?: Mariah Carey83¢
IY 49%Cliff 5Edge RVol 69%Resid $0
Will Migos release a new song 2026?: Migos21¢
IY 902%Cliff 4Edge RVol Resid $0
34 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 09 Aug 2026 09:08:42 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXSONGRELEASE

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →