The Marías · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01
The Marías is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 89¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #5 of 16 inside KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01.
Price history
99¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If The Marías releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
The Marías
Rank
#5 of 16
Leader
Post Malone 93¢
Range
60¢-93¢
Family volume
$3
Identifier
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-MAR
Aug 4, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
89¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$230
Family rank
#5 of 16
16 outcomes · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Family volume
$3
Orderbook snapshot
89 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If The Marías releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
Identifier
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-MAR
Event family
KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Post Malone 93¢
Current share
0%
Post Malone
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-POS
Dua Lipa
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-DUA
Bad Bunny
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BAD
Lil Uzi Vert
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-UZI
The Marías
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-MAR
Billie Eilish
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-BIL
Coldplay
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-COL
Kendrick Lamar
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-KEN
Eminem
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-EMI
Nicki Minaj
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-NIC
The Weeknd
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-WEE
Shawn Mendes
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-SHA
Justin Bieber
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-JUS
Justin Timberlake
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-JUST
Rihanna
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-RIH
Linkin Park
kalshi · KXSONGRELEASE-27JAN01-LIN
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.