Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?
This contract is priced at 16¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 15¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
14
Family volume
$4.0M
Best sibling
↓ 1,500 48¢
Ticker
0x1c4fd67a…0a13
Price history
16¢ current
+2¢Orderbook snapshot
15 / 16¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance ETH/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
0x1c4fd67a…0a13
Event family
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$4.0M
Outcomes
14
Highest price
↓ 1,500 48¢
Current share
8%
↑ 5,000
polymarket · 0x1c4fd67ab2a67f508672a69153559911244048b79a40cbe341d12f985ba90a13
↓ 1,500
polymarket · 0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780
↓ 1,000
polymarket · 0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369
↓ 800
polymarket · 0x717672a48c5f2938631f6e467b9a48aedb03fa380c0198704ef5acfc91721612
↑ 10,000
polymarket · 0x201f51d2d892c41c5bfa6568a0a2f93ab2ea426e87dddfd5fb0191f7ec34a441
↑ 3,500
polymarket · 0x42945ea5657d6f6e77969a06661b29d6f6295083d1ef3479b42efd90647c9dfc
↑ 6,000
polymarket · 0x6132cc91f7a0ad656e890b9040c159f4057f4c44359b3fb68085ec97156c918a
↑ 8,000
polymarket · 0xac0b4316113b50e0e667918aee72fa0eb006342245a52ab6371f3732af5733c8
↑ 6,500
polymarket · 0x0f0499d1049385b1d53ffee6c42a1de7424e551c765211ff2cc6d66329f43a80
↑ 5,500
polymarket · 0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8
↑ 4,500
polymarket · 0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21
↑ 4,000
polymarket · 0x9775cd557a3cdba4f0478070afa399c0805761dd9aa0e7ce4435a71fed32621c
↑ 7,000
polymarket · 0x4ee2c6081e18cc0d1f3347f6219940bda986657f1d150d17de0677ffc2104de0
↑ 7,500
polymarket · 0x4fc8725f00ba06576d7c78131e4589cc93a4e133128e8ca50c8f7ba34efeaaa1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Resolution Risk Premium: Pricing the Rule, Not the Outcome
When the resolution rule is fuzzy, the price is the market's estimate of how the rule will be interpreted, not the outcome's probability. Three case studies and the discount math.
How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle
Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.
Prediction Market
Learn how prediction markets work, why prices equal probabilities, and how to trade on Kalshi and Polymarket.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 16% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.